Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 4

Le Havre–Angers

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Angers
15	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
379	Passes	449
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.45 · Angers 1.11. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Le Havre 15 · Angers 9; on target 6 and 1.

Announced lineup

Le Havre

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: D. Digard

Starting XI

G. Gallongoalkeeper
A. Toubadefender
E. Jelertdefender
A. Sekodefender
K. Mizutamidfielder
A. Richardsonmidfielder
S. Ebonogmidfielder
D. Ouziadmidfielder
S. Nakamuramidfielder
J. Majamidfielder
M. Samattaforward

Substitutes

Alex Teixeira
D. Mosengo

Unavailable players

Le Havre

A. Toureout · Knee Injury
F. Mambimbiout · injury
J. Mwangaout · red-card suspension
L. Mpasi-Nzauout · injury
P. Argneyout · injury
R. Ndiayeout · Groin Injury
S. Zagadouout · injury
T. Pembeleout · not in squad

Angers

H. Belkeblaout · Thigh Injury
L. Moutondoubtful · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Ruddy Buquet→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.1%: “Le Havre to win”. Second comes “Angers to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Le Havre, 1.30 for Angers.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,326 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win37.1%

Draw28.2%

Angers to win34.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Angers

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: S. Gilli

Starting XI

Anthony Lopesgoalkeeper
J. Kaluludefender
J. Lefortdefender
O. Camaradefender
C. Arcusdefender
B. van den Boomenmidfielder
Y. Belkhdimmidfielder
Bane Diattamidfielder
A. Sbaïmidfielder
J. Allevinahmidfielder
A. El Ouazzaniforward

Substitutes

A. Bermont
Djibirin Harouna
E. Biumla
L. Mouton
L. Rao-Lisoa
M. Zinga
Marius Louër
P. Peter
U. Simbakoli

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 18:38.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Le Havre win or draw65.3%

12 — any result other than a draw71.8%

X2 — draw or Angers win62.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Le Havre lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time43.9%

Angers lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Angers ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1326 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 11Actual: 15
Angers: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 4
Angers: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.45

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Angers score1.11

Attack: Angers score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.1%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1326 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 105 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.