Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 3

Le Havre–Stade Brestois 29

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Stade Brestois 29K. Doumbia (penalty)
45+2'Le HavreJ. Mwanga · red card
51'Stade Brestois 29K. Doumbia (assist: M. Balde)
79'Le HavreR. Fofana (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Stade Brestois 29
18	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	9
13	Shots inside the box	12
8	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
455	Passes	370
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.33 · Stade Brestois 29 1.33. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Le Havre 18 · Stade Brestois 29 19; on target 4 and 9.
Le Havre kept the ball more (56%).

Unavailable players

Le Havre

A. Toureout · Knee Injury
F. Mambimbiout · injury
P. Argneyout · injury
S. Zagadouout · injury

Stade Brestois 29

B. Chardonnetout · Calf Injury
M. Diambouout · Ankle Injury
R. Cagnonout · Shoulder Injury
J. Bourgaultdoubtful · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

M. Bollengier→

3.59

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.3%: “Stade Brestois 29 to win”. Second comes “Le Havre to win” at 35.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Le Havre, 1.30 for Stade Brestois 29.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,319 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win35.1%

Draw28.6%

Stade Brestois 29 to win36.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Le Havre win or draw63.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.4%

X2 — draw or Stade Brestois 29 win64.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Le Havre lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time41.5%

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Stade Brestois 29 ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1319 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 12Actual: 15
Stade Brestois 29: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 5
Stade Brestois 29: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.33

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.33

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–28.9%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1319 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 104 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.