Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 1

Le Mans–Stade Brestois 29

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MMArena, Le Mans

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Stade Brestois 29R. Del Castillo (assist: K. Doumbia)
45+2'Le MansD. Guèye (assist: L. Mafouta)
55'Le MansL. Mafouta (assist: A. Bourabaa)
62'Stade Brestois 29K. Doumbia

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Mans		Stade Brestois 29
8	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
318	Passes	296
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Le Mans 8 · Stade Brestois 29 13; on target 5 and 5.

Unavailable players

Le Mans

H. Voyerout · yellow-card suspension

Stade Brestois 29

B. Chardonnetout · Calf Injury
H. Magnettiout · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:10.

Referee

Aurelien Petit, France→

4.17

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 0 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

11	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.