La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 6

Elche–Real Madrid

2–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Real MadridM. Dituro (own goal)
33'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: Y. Diomande)
71'ElcheA. Osorio (assist: L. Cepeda)
83'ElcheFer Niño (assist: Josan)
90+1'Real MadridCarlos Espí (assist: Kylian Mbappé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Elche		Real Madrid
11	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	15
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	5
56%	Possession	44%
542	Passes	430
493	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Elche 1.02 · Real Madrid 1.98. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Elche 11 · Real Madrid 20; on target 3 and 4.
Elche kept the ball more (56%).

Announced lineup

Elche

Formation: 3-4-3 · Manager: M. Anselmi

Starting XI

M. Diturogoalkeeper
Víctor Chustdefender
F. Redondodefender
Buba Sangarédefender
R. Revivomidfielder
Marc Aguadomidfielder
Gonzalo Villarmidfielder
Tete Morentemidfielder
Germán Valeraforward
A. Osorioforward
Martim Netoforward

Substitutes

Alejandro Iturbe
Bigas

Unavailable players

Elche

Y. Santiagoout · Knee Injury

Real Madrid

Eder Militaoout · Hamstring Injury
F. Mendyout · Hip Injury
Rodrygoout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.6%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.83 for Elche, 2.91 for Real Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 93.5% (X2 — draw or Real Madrid win).
These values were computed from 1,573 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Elche to win6.5%

Draw12.8%

Real Madrid to win80.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Matia Barzic Gutiérrez

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: José Mourinho

Starting XI

T. Courtoisgoalkeeper
Marc Cucurelladefender
D. Huijsendefender
I. Konatédefender
T. Alexander-Arnolddefender
A. Tchouamenimidfielder
F. Valverdemidfielder
Vinícius Júniormidfielder
A. Gulermidfielder
Y. Diomandemidfielder
Kylian Mbappéforward

Substitutes

A. Lunin
A. Rüdiger
Álvaro Fernández
B. Silva
Brahim Díaz
Carlos Espí
D. Dumfries
E. Camavinga
Endrick
J. Bellingham
R. Asencio
T. Pitarch

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 19:44.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Elche win or draw19.4%

12 — any result other than a draw87.2%

X2 — draw or Real Madrid win93.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (12.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Elche lead at half-time11.9%

Level at half-time37.8%

Real Madrid lead at half-time50.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Elche ahead or level49.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Real Madrid ahead88.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1573 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Elche: at least 13Actual: 21
Real Madrid: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Elche: at least 4Actual: 2
Real Madrid: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals73.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Elche score1.02

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Madrid score1.98

Attack: Real Madrid score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.98 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–210.2%0–310.1%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1573 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 81 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.