La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Osasuna–Espanyol

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'EspanyolRoberto Fernández (assist: Marcos Fernández)
17'EspanyolRoberto Fernández (assist: O. El Hilali)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Osasuna		Espanyol
11	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
494	Passes	325
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Osasuna 1.57 · Espanyol 1.02. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Osasuna 11 · Espanyol 6; on target 4 and 3.
Osasuna kept the ball more (61%).

Announced lineup

Osasuna

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Luis Miguel Ramis

Starting XI

Sergio Herreragoalkeeper
Diego Ricodefender
R. Yeboahdefender
Catenadefender
Íñigo Arguibidedefender
Iker Muñozmidfielder
Moncayolamidfielder
Kike Barjamidfielder
Raúl Garcíamidfielder
Rubén Garcíamidfielder
A. Budimirforward

Substitutes

Abel Bretones
Aitor Fernández

Unavailable players

Osasuna

A. Orozout · Muscle Injury
J. Herrandoout · Muscle Injury
M. Gomezout · Hamstring Injury
V. Rosierout · Hamstring Injury

Espanyol

A. Gorosabelout · injury
J. Puadoout · Knee Injury
K. Garciaout · Hamstring Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Osasuna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Osasuna, 1.04 for Espanyol.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (1X — Osasuna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,563 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Osasuna to win42.5%

Draw29.5%

Espanyol to win28.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	24

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Espanyol

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Manolo González

Starting XI

M. Dmitrovićgoalkeeper
Roger Hinojodefender
L. Cabreradefender
C. Riedeldefender
O. El Hilalidefender
Edu Expósitomidfielder
Urko Gonzálezmidfielder
T. Dolanmidfielder
Javier Hernandezmidfielder
Marcos Fernándezmidfielder
Roberto Fernándezforward

Substitutes

Álex Calatrava
Ángel Fortuño
B. Zaragoza
Gabriel Moscardo
J. A. Lopez
Jofre
Pere Milla
Pol Lozano
Q. Hartman
Rafel Bauzà
Unai Núñez
V. Drkušić

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:28.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Osasuna win or draw72.0%

12 — any result other than a draw70.5%

X2 — draw or Espanyol win57.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Osasuna lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time45.5%

Espanyol lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Osasuna ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Espanyol ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1563 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Osasuna: at least 12Actual: 10
Espanyol: at least 11Actual: 24

Corners

Osasuna: at least 4Actual: 3
Espanyol: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Osasuna score1.57

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Espanyol's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Espanyol score1.02

Attack: Espanyol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.6%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1563 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 118 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.