La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Real Sociedad–Atletico Madrid

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

84'Atletico MadridÁlex Grimaldo (penalty)
90'Atletico MadridJ. David (assist: Álex Grimaldo)
90+5'Atletico MadridG. Simeone (assist: D. Hancko)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad		Atletico Madrid
8	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
524	Passes	462
450	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad 1.52 · Atletico Madrid 1.41. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Real Sociedad 8 · Atletico Madrid 13; on target 3 and 5.

Announced lineup

Real Sociedad

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: P. Matarazzo

Starting XI

Álex Remirogoalkeeper
Sergio Gómezdefender
M. Sarrdefender
Luken Beitiadefender
J. Aramburudefender
Carlos Solermidfielder
Y. Herreramidfielder
Barrenetxeamidfielder
L. Sučićmidfielder
G. Guedesmidfielder
Mikel Oyarzabalforward

Substitutes

A. Zakharyan
Aihen Muñoz

Unavailable players

Real Sociedad

A. Odriozolaout · Knee Injury
I. Zubeldiaout · injury
J. Martinout · red-card suspension
P. Marindoubtful · injury

Atletico Madrid

A. Sorlothout · Muscle Injury
J. Alvarezout · Muscle Injury
P. Barriosout · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Juan Martinez Munuera→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Real Sociedad, 1.70 for Atletico Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,569 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad to win29.5%

Draw25.5%

Atletico Madrid to win45.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Atletico Madrid

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: D. Simeone

Starting XI

J. Oblakgoalkeeper
Marc Pubilldefender
D. Hanckodefender
C. Romerodefender
Marcos Llorentedefender
Álex Grimaldomidfielder
M. Hjulmandmidfielder
Álex Baenamidfielder
G. Simeonemidfielder
A. Lookmanforward
Lee Kang-Inforward

Substitutes

Arnau Ortiz
Dani MartÃnez
J. Cardoso
J. David
J. Dominguez
J. Musso
Javier Gil
Koke
O. Vargas
Robin Le Normand
Rodrigo Mendoza
Salvador Esquivel

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 19:14.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Sociedad win or draw55.0%

12 — any result other than a draw74.5%

X2 — draw or Atletico Madrid win70.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Sociedad lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time42.0%

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Atletico Madrid ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1569 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad: at least 11Actual: 13
Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Real Sociedad: at least 5Actual: 9
Atletico Madrid: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.52

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.41

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.1%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1569 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 156 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.