La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Real Madrid–Rayo Vallecano

4–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (penalty)
17'Real MadridÁlvaro Fernández (assist: Kylian Mbappé)
35'Real MadridJ. Bellingham (assist: Vinícius Júnior)
51'Rayo VallecanoSergio Camello
90+1'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: A. Guler)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Rayo Vallecano
24	Shots	18
11	Shots on target	7
16	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
543	Passes	415
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 2.23 · Rayo Vallecano 0.77. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Real Madrid 24 · Rayo Vallecano 18; on target 11 and 7.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (56%).

Announced lineup

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: José Mourinho

Starting XI

T. Courtoisgoalkeeper
Álvaro Fernándezdefender
I. Konatédefender
A. Rüdigerdefender
D. Dumfriesdefender
B. Silvamidfielder
F. Valverdemidfielder
Vinícius Júniormidfielder
J. Bellinghammidfielder
Y. Diomandemidfielder
Kylian Mbappéforward

Substitutes

A. Guler
A. Lunin

Unavailable players

Real Madrid

Eder Militaoout · Hamstring Injury
F. Mendyout · Hip Injury
Rodrygoout · Knee Injury
R. Asenciodoubtful · Muscle Injury

Rayo Vallecano

A. Batallaout · Broken calfbone
F. Perezout · red-card suspension
I. Palazonout · Muscle Injury
J. de Frutosout · red-card suspension
J. Vertrouwdout · Muscle Injury
Luiz Felipeout · Hamstring Injury
R. Ntekaout · Muscle Injury
I. Balliudoubtful · Ankle Injury
M. Kumbulladoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.1%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.13 for Real Madrid, 0.73 for Rayo Vallecano.
The highest double chance value is 95.5% (1X — Real Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,565 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win85.1%

Draw10.4%

Rayo Vallecano to win4.5%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 145 of 164 predictions were correct (88.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Rayo Vallecano

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Beñat San José

Starting XI

E. Auderogoalkeeper
Adrià Pedrosadefender
P. Cissdefender
F. Lejeunedefender
A. Rațiudefender
G. Bouaremidfielder
Unai Lópezmidfielder
Álvaro Garcíamidfielder
Pedro Díazmidfielder
G. Tsitaishvilimidfielder
Sergio Camelloforward

Substitutes

Adrián Molina
Alemão
Dani Cárdenas
I. Balliu
M. Kumbulla
M. Roman
Marco de las Sías
Mujaid Sadick
Óscar Valentín
Pelayo Fernández
Rayane Belid
Samu Becerra

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 19:12.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Madrid win or draw95.5%

12 — any result other than a draw89.6%

X2 — draw or Rayo Vallecano win14.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (10.4%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

Real Madrid lead at half-time50.6%

Level at half-time38.1%

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Madrid ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Rayo Vallecano ahead49.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1565 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Madrid: at least 8Actual: 9
Rayo Vallecano: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Real Madrid: at least 6Actual: 11
Rayo Vallecano: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals75.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 131 of 170 predictions were correct (77.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score2.23

Attack: Real Madrid score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score0.77

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–011.2%2–010.4%3–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1565 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 156 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.