La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Levante–Barcelona

2–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'BarcelonaX. Espart (assist: Raphinha)
19'BarcelonaLamine Yamal (assist: Raphinha)
48'BarcelonaLamine Yamal (penalty)
79'LevanteIván Romero
88'LevanteBrugui
90+3'BarcelonaK. Adeyemi (assist: Marc Bernal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Barcelona
13	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	5
4	Offsides	2
25%	Possession	75%
245	Passes	780
171	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.11 · Barcelona 2.12. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Levante 13 · Barcelona 12; on target 7 and 6.
Barcelona kept the ball more (75%).

Announced lineup

Levante

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Luís Castro

Starting XI

M. Ryangoalkeeper
Manu Sánchezdefender
A. Mandidefender
Deladefender
J. Toljandefender
Jon Ander Olasagastimidfielder
H. Sotelomidfielder
Requemidfielder
Víctor Garcíaforward
P. Ratkovforward
Bruguiforward

Substitutes

A. Tape
E. Bardeli

Unavailable players

Levante

A. Primoout · Shoulder Injury
K. Etta Eyongout · injury

Barcelona

F. de Jongout · Knee Injury
R. Bardghjiout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.5%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Levante, 3.06 for Barcelona.
The highest double chance value is 94.2% (X2 — draw or Barcelona win).
These values were computed from 1,567 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win5.8%

Draw11.7%

Barcelona to win82.5%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

IfeanyiIfeanyi Ndukwe

Barcelona

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: H. Flick

Starting XI

Joan Garcíagoalkeeper
X. Espartdefender
Gerard Martíndefender
Pau Cubarsí Paredesdefender
Eric Garcíadefender
Pedrimidfielder
Rodrimidfielder
Fermínmidfielder
A. Gordonforward
Raphinhaforward
Lamine Yamalforward

Substitutes

A. Christensen
Alejandro Balde
D. Livaković
Dani Olmo
Gabriel Jesus
Gavi
H. Abdelkarim
J. Koundé
João Cancelo
K. Adeyemi
Marc Bernal
W. Szczęsny

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 14:08.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Levante win or draw17.5%

12 — any result other than a draw88.3%

X2 — draw or Barcelona win94.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (11.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Levante lead at half-time11.0%

Level at half-time35.8%

Barcelona lead at half-time53.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level46.8%

12 — not level at half-time64.2%

X2 — level or Barcelona ahead89.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1567 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 10Actual: 11
Barcelona: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Levante: at least 4Actual: 3
Barcelona: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals76.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 131 of 170 predictions were correct (77.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.11

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Barcelona concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Barcelona score2.12

Attack: Barcelona score 86% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–310.0%0–29.5%1–39.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1567 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 42 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.