La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Sevilla–Valencia

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

81'SevillaJuan Iglesias (assist: G. Kochorashvili)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sevilla		Valencia
13	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	0
9	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
348	Passes	427
274	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sevilla 1.41 · Valencia 1.11. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sevilla 13 · Valencia 3; on target 4 and 0.

Announced lineup

Sevilla

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: Luis García

Starting XI

O. Vlachodimosgoalkeeper
G. Suazodefender
Kike Salasdefender
Andrés Castríndefender
Juan Iglesiasdefender
Félix Correiamidfielder
Y. Fofanamidfielder
L. Agoumémidfielder
M. Sierramidfielder
Isaacforward
L. Stassinforward

Substitutes

Alfon González
C. Ejuke

Unavailable players

Sevilla

A. Sanganteout · red-card suspension
R. Vargasout · Knee Injury
Marcãodoubtful · Foot Injury

Valencia

D. Foulquierout · injury
D. Lopezout · Knee Injury
G. Rodriguezout · Muscle Injury
J. Copeteout · Ankle Injury
L. Riojaout · injury
M. Diakhabyout · Muscle Injury
S. Canosout · Knee Injury
U. Sadiqout · Muscle Injury
J. De Haasdoubtful · Ankle Injury
Jesús Vázquezdoubtful · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “Sevilla to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Sevilla, 0.91 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Sevilla win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,561 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sevilla to win49.1%

Draw28.6%

Valencia to win22.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

José Ángel Carmona

Julio Díaz del Romo

Valencia

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: Carlos Corberán

Starting XI

S. Dimitrievskigoalkeeper
José Gayàdefender
C. Tarregadefender
Pepeludefender
Arnau Martínezdefender
R. Satomidfielder
F. Ugrinicmidfielder
A. Diengmidfielder
David Otorbimidfielder
A. Danjumaforward
Javi Guerraforward

Substitutes

Aaron Mayol
Aimar Blázquez
Alex Panach
Dani Raba
H. Elliott
Hugo Duro
Iker Córdoba
J. De Haas
Jaume Durá
Jesús Vázquez
K. van Oevelen
P. Maffeo

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 19:12.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sevilla win or draw77.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.4%

X2 — draw or Valencia win50.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sevilla lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time45.4%

Valencia lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sevilla ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1561 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sevilla: at least 13Actual: 8
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Sevilla: at least 4Actual: 6
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sevilla score1.41

Attack: Sevilla score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score1.11

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sevilla's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–013.1%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1561 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 156 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.