La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Athletic Club–Elche

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'ElcheF. Buonanotte (penalty)
79'Athletic ClubI. Williams (assist: Álex Berenguer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Elche
19	Shots	3
3	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	1
4	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
614	Passes	317
542	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.89 · Elche 0.91. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Athletic Club 19 · Elche 3; on target 3 and 1.
Athletic Club kept the ball more (66%).

Announced lineup

Athletic Club

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: E. Terzić

Starting XI

Unai Simóngoalkeeper
Yuridefender
Aymeric Laportedefender
Yeraydefender
Jesús Aresodefender
Beñat Gerenabarrenamidfielder
Ruíz de Galarretamidfielder
Nico Williamsmidfielder
Oihan Sancetmidfielder
Robert Navarromidfielder
I. Williamsforward

Substitutes

Aitor Paredes
Alejandro Rego

Unavailable players

Athletic Club

Álvaro Djalóout · Coach's decision
D. Vivianout · Hamstring Injury
Gorka Guruzetaout · Hamstring Injury
Nico Serranoout · Coach's decision
P. Canalesout · Muscle Injury
U. Egiluzout · Knee Injury

Elche

Y. Santiagoout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.2%: “Athletic Club to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for Athletic Club, 0.82 for Elche.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — Athletic Club win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,564 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win68.2%

Draw20.1%

Elche to win11.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Elche

Formation: 3-4-3 · Manager: M. Anselmi

Starting XI

M. Diturogoalkeeper
Víctor Chustdefender
F. Redondodefender
Buba Sangarédefender
R. Revivomidfielder
Gonzalo Villarmidfielder
J. Morcillomidfielder
Tete Morentemidfielder
Germán Valeraforward
Fer Niñoforward
F. Buonanotteforward

Substitutes

A. Osorio
Alejandro Iturbe
Bigas
E. Ponce
G. Diangana
Josan
L. Cepeda
Marc Aguado
Martim Neto
Matia Barzic Gutiérrez
Rubén Sánchez
T. Lemar

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 16:42.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Athletic Club win or draw88.3%

12 — any result other than a draw79.9%

X2 — draw or Elche win31.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Athletic Club lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time41.4%

Elche lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Athletic Club ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Elche ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1564 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Athletic Club: at least 13Actual: 11
Elche: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Athletic Club: at least 5Actual: 7
Elche: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.89

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Elche score0.91

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.2%2–110.7%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1564 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 80 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.