La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 4

Getafe–Celta Vigo

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'GetafeM. Satriano
57'Celta VigoCarl Starfelt (assist: Hugo González)
67'GetafeZ. Romero · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Getafe		Celta Vigo
10	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
30%	Possession	70%
253	Passes	588
170	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Getafe 1.14 · Celta Vigo 1.03. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Getafe 10 · Celta Vigo 16; on target 2 and 3.
Celta Vigo kept the ball more (70%).

Announced lineup

Getafe

Formation: 5-3-2 · Manager: Pepe Bordalás

Starting XI

David Soriagoalkeeper
J. Mojicadefender
Z. Romerodefender
D. Dakonamdefender
N. Gudeljdefender
Kiko Femeniadefender
M. Martinmidfielder
O. Mangalamidfielder
Ramón Terratsmidfielder
M. Satrianoforward
E. Ünalforward

Substitutes

A. Garcia
Borja Mayoral

Unavailable players

Getafe

A. Abqarout · Muscle Injury
C. Ucheout · Knee Injury
Franchoout · injury
Juanmiout · injury
A. Garciadoubtful · injury
M. Martindoubtful · injury

Celta Vigo

A. Febasout · Ribs Injury
B. Iglesiasdoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

César Soto Grado, Spain→

5.18

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Getafe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Getafe, 0.89 for Celta Vigo.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (1X — Getafe win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,559 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Getafe to win37.7%

Draw33.3%

Celta Vigo to win29.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Celta Vigo

Formation: 3-4-3 · Manager: Claudio Giráldez

Starting XI

Ionuț Radugoalkeeper
M. Alonsodefender
Carl Starfeltdefender
Yoel Lagodefender
Javi Galánmidfielder
Miguel Románmidfielder
Ilaix Moribamidfielder
J. El Abdellaouimidfielder
Hugo Gonzálezforward
Pablo Duránforward
I. Aspasforward

Substitutes

Altay Bayındır
Álvaro Núñez
B. Iglesias
C. Driouech
Ferrán Jutglà
Hugo Álvarez
Hugo Burcio
Javi Rodríguez
Javier Rueda
Sebastián Cáceres
Sergio Carreira
Williot Swedberg

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 17:14.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Getafe win or draw70.9%

12 — any result other than a draw66.7%

X2 — draw or Celta Vigo win62.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (33.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Getafe lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time48.0%

Celta Vigo lead at half-time21.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Getafe ahead or level78.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Celta Vigo ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1559 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Getafe: at least 13Actual: 8
Celta Vigo: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Getafe: at least 4Actual: 3
Celta Vigo: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Getafe score1.14

Attack: Getafe score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celta Vigo's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celta Vigo score1.03

Attack: Celta Vigo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Getafe concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–014.5%0–014.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1559 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.