La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 4

Alaves–Osasuna

5–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'AlavesL. Boyé (assist: M. Díaz)
36'AlavesM. Díaz (assist: Sivera)
46'OsasunaA. Budimir (assist: M. Gomez)
51'AlavesL. Boyé (assist: Carles Aleñá)
64'OsasunaA. Budimir (penalty)
68'AlavesL. Boyé (assist: Angel Pérez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alaves		Osasuna
12	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
392	Passes	400
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alaves 1.49 · Osasuna 1.04. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Alaves 12 · Osasuna 7; on target 7 and 5.

Unavailable players

Alaves

F. Garcesout · suspended
M. Rodriguezout · Ankle Injury
T. Martinezout · Foot Injury

Osasuna

A. Orozout · Muscle Injury
J. Herrandoout · Muscle Injury
V. Rosierout · Hamstring Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain→

4.18

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Alaves to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Alaves, 0.98 for Osasuna.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (1X — Alaves win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,556 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alaves to win42.0%

Draw30.5%

Osasuna to win27.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

90'AlavesPablo Ibáñez (assist: Angel Pérez)

14	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Alaves win or draw72.5%

12 — any result other than a draw69.5%

X2 — draw or Osasuna win58.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.5%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Alaves lead at half-time33.5%

Level at half-time46.2%

Osasuna lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Alaves ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Osasuna ahead66.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1556 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alaves: at least 12Actual: 14
Osasuna: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Alaves: at least 5Actual: 4
Osasuna: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alaves score1.49

Attack: Alaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Osasuna's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Osasuna score1.04

Attack: Osasuna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alaves's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.7%0–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1556 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 117 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.