La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 3

Deportivo La Coruna–Valencia

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Deportivo La CorunaC. Tarrega (own goal)
17'Deportivo La CorunaP. Aubameyang (assist: Mario Soriano)
26'ValenciaU. Sadiq
59'Deportivo La CorunaM. Diakhaby (own goal)
90+3'Deportivo La CorunaAdrià Alti · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Valencia
11	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
448	Passes	539
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Deportivo La Coruna 11 · Valencia 11; on target 4 and 3.
Valencia kept the ball more (55%).

Unavailable players

Deportivo La Coruna

Adama Traoréout · Muscle Injury
N. Carrilloout · injury

Valencia

A. Mariout · Leg Injury
D. Foulquierout · Knee Injury
D. Lopezout · Knee Injury
G. Rodriguezout · Muscle Injury
J. Copeteout · Ankle Injury
J. De Haasout · Ankle Injury
P. Maffeoout · Muscle Injury
S. Canosout · Knee Injury
A. Almeidadoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain→

3.94

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 2 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

12	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.