La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 3

Racing Santander–Elche

3–2

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Racing SantanderM. Zabiri
21'Racing SantanderM. Zabiri
36'Racing SantanderM. Zabiri (assist: Iñigo Vicente)
78'ElcheBuba Sangaré (assist: L. Cepeda)
79'ElcheFer Niño (assist: Tete Morente)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Elche
13	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	10
3	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
376	Passes	546
302	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Racing Santander 13 · Elche 17; on target 6 and 6.
Elche kept the ball more (60%).

Unavailable players

Racing Santander

Pedro Felipeout · Hamstring Injury
Manu Hernandodoubtful · injury

Elche

A. Boayarout · Muscle Injury
Y. Santiagoout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain→

4.00

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 2 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

16	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.