La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 2

Athletic Club–Sevilla

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Athletic ClubYuri · red card
15'SevillaOso
50'SevillaC. Ejuke (assist: Isaac)
57'SevillaIsaac (assist: Oso)
70'Athletic ClubAitor Paredes (assist: Yeray)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Sevilla
2	Shots	0
2	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
83	Passes	36
69	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.69 · Sevilla 0.88. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Athletic Club 2 · Sevilla 0; on target 2 and 0.
Athletic Club kept the ball more (69%).

Unavailable players

Athletic Club

A. Gorosabelout · Muscle Injury
Beñat Pradosout · Thigh Injury
D. Vivianout · Hamstring Injury
Nico Serranoout · Coach's decision
U. Egiluzout · Knee Injury
U. Vencedorout · not in squad

Sevilla

Alfon Gonzálezout · Muscle Injury
Kike Salasout · red-card suspension
Marcãoout · Foot Injury
R. Vargasout · Transfer negotiations

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

César Soto Grado, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.9%: “Athletic Club to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Athletic Club, 0.81 for Sevilla.
The highest double chance value is 82.5% (1X — Athletic Club win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,528 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win55.9%

Draw26.6%

Sevilla to win17.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

2	Fouls	1

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Athletic Club win or draw82.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Sevilla win44.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Athletic Club lead at half-time41.5%

Level at half-time42.6%

Sevilla lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Athletic Club ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Sevilla ahead58.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1528 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Athletic Club: at least 12Actual: 2
Sevilla: at least 11Actual: 1

Corners

Athletic Club: at least 5Actual: 1
Sevilla: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.69

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sevilla's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sevilla score0.88

Attack: Sevilla score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.8%1–113.4%2–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1528 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 152 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.