Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 4

Inter–Udinese

5–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'UdineseJames Abankwah (assist: Unai Gómez)
16'UdineseJürgen Ekkelenkamp (assist: Keinan Davis)
26'InterCarlos Augusto
35'InterNicolò Barella (assist: Marcus Thuram)
57'InterMarcus Thuram (assist: Andy Diouf)
67'InterPio Esposito (assist: Piotr Zieliński)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Inter		Udinese
27	Shots	6
12	Shots on target	5
17	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
608	Passes	329
562	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Inter 2.12 · Udinese 0.76. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots Inter 27 · Udinese 6; on target 12 and 5.
Inter kept the ball more (65%).

Announced lineup

Inter

Formation: 3-5-2 · Manager: Cristian Chivu

Starting XI

Josep Martínezgoalkeeper
Alessandro Bastonidefender
Manuel Akanjidefender
John Stonesdefender
Carlos Augustomidfielder
H. Mkhitaryanmidfielder
Piotr Zielińskimidfielder
Nicolò Barellamidfielder
Andy Dioufmidfielder
Pio Espositoforward
Marcus Thuramforward

Substitutes

Aleksandar Stanković

Unavailable players

Inter

D. Spenceout · injury
H. Calhanogluout · Muscle Injury
F. Dimarcodoubtful · Knee Injury

Udinese

A. Zanoliout · Knee Injury
J. Arizalaout · Thigh Injury
J. Piotrowskiout · Heart Problems
M. Palmaout · Muscle Injury
N. Zanioloout · Thigh Injury
O. Soletout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Luca Pairetto, Italy→

5.00

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.6%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.66 for Inter, 0.71 for Udinese.
The highest double chance value is 93.6% (1X — Inter win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,559 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Inter to win79.6%

Draw14.0%

Udinese to win6.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

79'InterAnge-Yoan Bonny

90'UdineseIdrissa Gueye (assist: Vakoun Issouf Bayo)

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Udinese

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: Kosta Runjaic

Starting XI

Maduka Okoyegoalkeeper
Enzo Ebossedefender
C. Kabaseledefender
James Abankwahdefender
Hassane Kamaramidfielder
Lennon Millermidfielder
Jesper Karlströmmidfielder
Mërgim Vojvodamidfielder
Jürgen Ekkelenkampforward
Unai Gómezforward
Keinan Davisforward

Substitutes

Bartosz Mrozek
Daniele Padelli
G. Chakvetadze
Giulio Vinciati
Idrissa Gueye
Lazar Jovanović
Nicolò Bertola
Oier Zarraga
Sandi Lovrić
Vakoun Issouf Bayo

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 18:42.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Inter win or draw93.6%

12 — any result other than a draw86.0%

X2 — draw or Udinese win20.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Inter lead at half-time40.6%

Level at half-time43.3%

Udinese lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Inter ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Udinese ahead59.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1559 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Inter: at least 10Actual: 9
Udinese: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Inter: at least 6Actual: 10
Udinese: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Inter score2.12

Attack: Inter score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Udinese score0.76

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%3–011.2%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1559 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.