Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 4

Lazio–AC Milan

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'LazioMatteo Cancellieri (assist: Mattia Zaccagni)
39'LazioTijjani Noslin
65'AC MilanDiego Moreira (assist: Christian Pulišić)
67'AC MilanDiego Moreira (assist: Adrien Rabiot)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lazio		AC Milan
8	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
313	Passes	612
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lazio 1.11 · AC Milan 1.29. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Lazio 8 · AC Milan 15; on target 6 and 6.
AC Milan kept the ball more (66%).

Announced lineup

Lazio

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Gennaro Gattuso

Starting XI

Christos Mandasgoalkeeper
Nuno Tavaresdefender
Oliver Provstgaarddefender
J. Sutalodefender
Romano Floriani Mussolinidefender
Kenneth Taylormidfielder
Reda Belahyanemidfielder
Davide Frattesimidfielder
Mattia Zaccagniforward
Tijjani Noslinforward
Matteo Cancellieriforward

Substitutes

A. Pinamonti

Unavailable players

Lazio

A. Furlanettoout · Knee Injury
A. Marusicout · Muscle Injury
D. Cataldiout · Groin Injury
D. Doekhiout · Hand Injury
F. Dele-Bashiruout · Muscle Injury
L. Pellegriniout · injury
N. Rovellaout · injury
Patricout · Ankle Injury
A. Pinamontidoubtful · injury

AC Milan

Matteo Gabbiaout · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Matteo Marcenaro, Italy→

4.15

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Lazio, 1.39 for AC Milan.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or AC Milan win).
These values were computed from 1,552 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lazio to win25.7%

Draw29.0%

AC Milan to win45.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

AC Milan

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: Ruben Amorim

Starting XI

Mike Maignangoalkeeper
Strahinja Pavlovićdefender
Koni De Winterdefender
Mario Giladefender
Pervis Estupiñánmidfielder
Adrien Rabiotmidfielder
Luka Modrićmidfielder
Samuel Chukwuezemidfielder
Alphadjo Cissèforward
Ruben Loftus-Cheekforward
Gonçalo Ramosforward

Substitutes

Alexis Saelemaekers
Ardon Jashari
Christian Comotto
Christian Pulišić
Davide Bartesaghi
Diego Moreira
Fikayo Tomori
Filippo Terracciano
Francesco Camarda
Lorenzo Torriani
Matteo Gabbia
Omari Hutchinson
Pietro Terracciano
Sankhoun Diawara
Yunus Musah

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 16:04.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lazio win or draw54.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.0%

X2 — draw or AC Milan win74.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Lazio lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time49.4%

AC Milan lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Lazio ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.6%

X2 — level or AC Milan ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1552 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lazio: at least 10Actual: 14
AC Milan: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Lazio: at least 4Actual: 2
AC Milan: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (47.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lazio score1.11

Attack: Lazio score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Milan score1.29

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Lazio's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–111.9%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1552 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.