Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 4

Napoli–Bologna

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'NapoliStanislav Lobotka (assist: Costantino Favasuli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Bologna
15	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	0
2	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
540	Passes	401
485	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 1.37 · Bologna 1.01. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Napoli 15 · Bologna 5; on target 3 and 2.
Napoli kept the ball more (58%).

Announced lineup

Napoli

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Massimiliano Allegri

Starting XI

Vanja Milinković-Savićgoalkeeper
Leonardo Spinazzoladefender
Rafa Maríndefender
Amir Rrahmanidefender
Giovanni Di Lorenzodefender
Kevin De Bruynemidfielder
Stanislav Lobotkamidfielder
Billy Gilmourmidfielder
Antonio Vergaraforward
Rasmus Højlundforward
Matteo Politanoforward

Substitutes

Benoît Badiashile

Unavailable players

Napoli

A. Buongiornoout · Knee Injury
A. Meretout · Muscle Injury
Alisson Santosout · Muscle Injury
F. Anguissaout · Muscle Injury
Giovaneout · Groin Injury
L. Marianucciout · Knee Injury
S. McTominayout · Heart Problems

Bologna

A. Dovbykout · Muscle Injury
N. Zorteaout · Hip Injury
O. El Azzouziout · Thigh Injury
R. Orsoliniout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Kevin Bonacina, Italy→

4.64

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Napoli, 1.03 for Bologna.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Napoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,555 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win50.6%

Draw26.7%

Bologna to win22.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Bologna

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Domenico Tedesco

Starting XI

Massimo Pessinagoalkeeper
Juan Mirandadefender
Arthur Theatedefender
Torbjørn Heggemdefender
Emil Holmdefender
Mikel Amondarainmidfielder
Lewis Fergusonmidfielder
Tommaso Pobegamidfielder
Nicolò Cambiaghiforward
Roberto Piccoliforward
Federico Bernardeschiforward

Substitutes

Abdel Rahim
Eivind Helland
Jay Enem
Jens Odgaard
Lorenzo De Silvestri
Łukasz Skorupski
Marco Libra
Martin Vitík
Matteo Franceschelli
N. Casale
Nikola Moro
Samuel Mbangula

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 15:54.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Napoli win or draw77.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Bologna win49.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Napoli lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time44.8%

Bologna lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Bologna ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1555 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 11Actual: 14
Bologna: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Napoli: at least 4
Bologna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score1.37

Attack: Napoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bologna's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bologna score1.01

Attack: Bologna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–010.7%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1555 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.