Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 4

Como–Parma

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'ComoJacobo Ramón (assist: Nico Paz)
83'ComoKaiki (assist: Máximo Perrone)
90+2'ParmaDavid Romero (assist: Pontus Almqvist)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		Parma
27	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	3
23	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	4
4	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
640	Passes	350
578	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.86 · Parma 0.64. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Como 27 · Parma 11; on target 7 and 3.
Como kept the ball more (65%).

Announced lineup

Como

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Cesc Fabregas

Starting XI

Robert Sánchezgoalkeeper
Kaikidefender
Jacobo Ramóndefender
Marc Kempfdefender
Yan Coutodefender
Máximo Perronemidfielder
Lucas Da Cunhamidfielder
Martin Baturinamidfielder
Nico Pazmidfielder
Assane Diaomidfielder
M. Keanforward

Substitutes

A. Lahdo
Alberto Dossena

Unavailable players

Como

J. Addaiout · Achilles Tendon Injury

Parma

H. Nicolussi Cavigliaout · Groin Injury
A. Bernabedoubtful · not in squad
O. Diallodoubtful · injury
S. Britschgidoubtful · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Giuseppe Mucera, Italy→

3.33

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.6%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.45 for Como, 0.62 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 93.7% (1X — Como win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,557 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win78.6%

Draw15.1%

Parma to win6.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	4

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Parma

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: Carlos Cuesta

Starting XI

Edoardo Corvigoalkeeper
Mariano Troilodefender
Diego Carlosdefender
Enrico Delpratodefender
Emanuele Valerimidfielder
Mandela Keitamidfielder
Vincent Sierromidfielder
S. Britschgimidfielder
Simone Lontaniforward
El Bilal Touréforward
Nesta Elphegeforward

Substitutes

A. Bernabe
Abdou-Salam Konate
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Benjamin Cremaschi
Christian Ordoñez
David Romero
Dominik Drobnic
Franco Carboni
Giovanni Daffara
Giovanni Fabbian
Lautaro Valenti
Matija Frigan
Pontus Almqvist
Simone Ghidotti
Thomas de Martis

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 16:36.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Como win or draw93.7%

12 — any result other than a draw84.9%

X2 — draw or Parma win21.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Como lead at half-time43.6%

Level at half-time45.0%

Parma lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Como ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Parma ahead56.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1557 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Como: at least 12Actual: 8
Parma: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

Como: at least 5Actual: 11
Parma: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.86

Attack: Como score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score0.64

Attack: Parma score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Como concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.5%3–011.8%1–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1557 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 79 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.