Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 4

Lecce–Monza

3–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'LecceLassana Coulibaly (assist: Ivan Ilić)
10'LecceTiago Gabriel (assist: Ivan Ilić)
20'MonzaRicardo Mangas (assist: Samuele Birindelli)
21'LecceLassana Coulibaly (assist: Danilo Veiga)
89'MonzaExequiel Zeballos

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lecce		Monza
7	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	10
6	Shots inside the box	13
7	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
39%	Possession	61%
315	Passes	486
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lecce 1.02 · Monza 1.32. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Lecce 7 · Monza 16; on target 3 and 10.
Monza kept the ball more (61%).

Announced lineup

Lecce

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Eusebio Di Francesco

Starting XI

Wladimiro Falconegoalkeeper
Antonino Gallodefender
Tiago Gabrieldefender
Jamil Siebertdefender
Danilo Veigadefender
Ivan Ilićmidfielder
Youssef Malehmidfielder
Lassana Coulibalymidfielder
Joël Monteiroforward
Nikola Štulićforward
N'Dri Konanforward

Substitutes

A. Fatah

Unavailable players

Lecce

M. Berishaout · Rest
O. Gandelmanout · not in squad
W. Geubbelsout · Ankle Injury

Monza

C. Ngongeout · Lacking Match Fitness
G. Varelaout · Thigh Injury
I. Toureout · Contusion
J. Ziolkowskiout · Foot Injury
M. Pessinaout · Knee Injury
P. Ciurriaout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Valerio Crezzini, Italy→

3.67

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “Lecce to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Lecce, 1.20 for Monza.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,554 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lecce to win34.1%

Draw30.0%

Monza to win35.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Monza

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: Ivan Juric

Starting XI

D. Thiamgoalkeeper
Andrea Carbonidefender
Lorenzo Lucchesidefender
Eddy Kouadiodefender
Ricardo Mangasmidfielder
E. Akinsanmiromidfielder
M. Folorunshomidfielder
Samuele Birindellimidfielder
Jay Robinsonforward
Andrea Colpaniforward
G. Varelaforward

Substitutes

Adam Bakoune
Aljaz Strajnar
D. Mota
Exequiel Zeballos
L. Colombo
Manga Foe Ondoa
Mathis Mout
Noel Törnqvist
Omari Forson
Patrick Cutrone
Saba Goglichidze
Valentin Antov
Yvan Maye

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 13:14.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lecce win or draw64.1%

12 — any result other than a draw70.0%

X2 — draw or Monza win65.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.0%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

Lecce lead at half-time25.2%

Level at half-time43.4%

Monza lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Lecce ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Monza ahead74.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1554 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lecce: at least 12Actual: 14
Monza: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Lecce: at least 4Actual: 4
Monza: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (47.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lecce score1.02

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Monza's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monza score1.32

Attack: Monza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lecce concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–110.4%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1554 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 117 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.