Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 4

Torino–AS Roma

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'AS RomaDonyell Malen
90+3'AS RomaNiccolò Pisilli

Match statistics

Match statistics
Torino		AS Roma
6	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	8
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
495	Passes	434
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Torino 0.85 · AS Roma 1.83. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Torino 6 · AS Roma 14; on target 3 and 5.

Announced lineup

Torino

Formation: 5-3-2 · Manager: Ignazio Abate

Starting XI

Lucas Perrigoalkeeper
Niccolò Fortinidefender
Pietro Comuzzodefender
Saúl Cocodefender
E. Comertdefender
Rafik Belghalidefender
Kian Fitz-Jimmidfielder
Rolando Mandragoramidfielder
Gvidas Gineitismidfielder
Nikola Vlašićforward
Giovanni Simeoneforward

Substitutes

Alessio Cacciamani

Unavailable players

Torino

C. Adamsout · Muscle Injury
C. Casadeiout · Rest
F. Israelout · Shoulder Injury
P. Pellegriout · Knee Injury
Giovanni Simeonedoubtful · Back Injury
Saúl Cocodoubtful · injury

AS Roma

E. Ndickaout · illness
L. Pellegriniout · Thigh Injury
M. Bahout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Fabio Maresca, Italy→

4.17

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.5%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for Torino, 1.98 for AS Roma.
The highest double chance value is 84.9% (X2 — draw or AS Roma win).
These values were computed from 1,557 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Torino to win15.1%

Draw22.4%

AS Roma to win62.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

AS Roma

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: Piero Gasperini Gian

Starting XI

Mile Svilargoalkeeper
Mario Hermosodefender
L. Balerdidefender
Gianluca Mancinidefender
Emanuele Lullimidfielder
Bryan Cristantemidfielder
Niccolò Pisillimidfielder
Nahuel Molinamidfielder
Matías Souléforward
Paulo Dybalaforward
Donyell Malenforward

Substitutes

D. Rensch
Daniele Ghilardi
Giorgio De Marzi
Konstantinos Koulierakis
L. Pellegrini
Manu Koné
Marten de Roon
Pierluigi Gollini
Rodrigo Mora
Santiago Castro
Wesley

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 16:44.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Torino win or draw37.5%

12 — any result other than a draw77.6%

X2 — draw or AS Roma win84.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Torino lead at half-time7.0%

Level at half-time39.2%

AS Roma lead at half-time53.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Torino ahead or level46.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or AS Roma ahead93.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1557 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Torino: at least 12Actual: 7
AS Roma: at least 10Actual: 20

Corners

Torino: at least 3Actual: 1
AS Roma: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Torino score0.85

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AS Roma score1.83

Attack: AS Roma score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%0–211.2%1–211.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1557 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.