11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.
Model prediction
Why this prediction?
·The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
·Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Sassuolo, 1.85 for Juventus.
·The highest double chance value is 82.5% (X2 — draw or Juventus win).
·These values were computed from 1,556 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
Sassuolo to win17.5%
Draw23.9%
Juventus to win58.6%
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →
Both teams to score
411
6
Fouls
13
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
Benjamín Domínguez
Cas Odenthal
Darryl Bakola
Duje Ćaleta-Car
Ibrahim Sulemana
Ignace Van der Brempt
Kieron Bowie
Laurs Skjellerup
Lorenzo Nyarko
Nicholas Pierini
Rafael Obrador
Stefano Turati
Vasilije Adžić
Juventus
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Luciano Spalletti
Starting XI
Guglielmo Vicariogoalkeeper
Zeki Çelikdefender
Jhon Lucumídefender
Gleison Bremerdefender
Pierre Kaluludefender
Teun Koopmeinersmidfielder
Douglas Luizmidfielder
Kerim Alajbegovićmidfielder
Nicolás Gonzálezmidfielder
Francisco Conceiçãomidfielder
Randal Kolo Muaniforward
Substitutes
Augusto Owusu
Carlo Pinsoglio
D. Rugani
E. Zhegrova
F. Gatti
Filippo Pagnucco
Justin Oboavwoduo
Kamil Grabara
L. Kelly
Nick Woltemade
P. M. Sarr
Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 18:44.
out · Knee Injury
K. Yildizout · Foot Injury
M. Locatelliout · Knee Injury
P. M. Sarrout · Muscle Injury
W. McKennieout · Muscle Injury
Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.
54.6%
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — Sassuolo win or draw41.4%
12 — any result other than a draw76.1%
X2 — draw or Juventus win82.5%
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).
First half
Actual: 0–0
Sassuolo lead at half-time16.6%
Level at half-time44.4%
Juventus lead at half-time39.0%
First-half double chance
1X — Sassuolo ahead or level61.0%
12 — not level at half-time55.6%
X2 — level or Juventus ahead83.4%
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1556 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Expected fouls and corners
Fouls
Sassuolo
at least 9Actual: 6
Juventus
at least 11Actual: 13
Corners
Sassuolo
at least 3Actual: 3
Juventus
at least 4Actual: 9
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
Goals market
3+ goals53.8%
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
What these probabilities rest on
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
How many goals Sassuolo score0.87
Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).
How many goals Juventus score1.71
Attack: Juventus score above the league average (27% more).
Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).
Most likely scorelines
1–112.1%1–210.9%0–210.6%
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 1556 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 117 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.
