Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 4

Genoa–Frosinone

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'FrosinoneGiorgi Kvernadze (assist: Romano Schmid)
50'GenoaJohan Vásquez (assist: Djibril Sow)
87'GenoaJohan Vásquez · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genoa		Frosinone
17	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	6
2	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
274	Passes	340
175	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genoa 1.33 · Frosinone 1.29. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Genoa 17 · Frosinone 21; on target 5 and 3.
Frosinone kept the ball more (55%).

Announced lineup

Genoa

Formation: 3-5-2 · Manager: Daniele De Rossi

Starting XI

Justin Bijlowgoalkeeper
Johan Vásquezdefender
Leo Østigårddefender
Alessandro Marcandallidefender
Mikael Ellertssonmidfielder
Djibril Sowmidfielder
Tommaso Baldanzimidfielder
Morten Frendrupmidfielder
Kingsley Ehizibuemidfielder
Lorenzo Colomboforward
Milutin Osmajićforward

Substitutes

Alexsandro Amorim

Unavailable players

Genoa

E. Havelout · Ankle Injury
L. Venturinoout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Antonio Rapuano, Italy→

4.25

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Genoa to win”. Second comes “Frosinone to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Genoa, 1.25 for Frosinone.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,551 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genoa to win43.1%

Draw27.1%

Frosinone to win29.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Franz-Ethan Meichtry

Frosinone

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Massimiliano Alvini

Starting XI

Lorenzo Palmisanigoalkeeper
Gabriele Bracagliadefender
Giorgio Cittadinidefender
Gabriele Calvanidefender
Anthony Oyonodefender
Patrizio Masinimidfielder
Romano Schmidmidfielder
Giacomo Calòmidfielder
Giorgi Kvernadzeforward
Antonio Raimondoforward
F. Ghedjemisforward

Substitutes

Aleksa Terzić
Alessio Zerbin
Anouar El Azzouzi
Daniel Bîrligea
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi
Ilario Monterisi
Kevin Akpoguma
Luis Hasa
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Pisseri
O. Fayed
Sebastiano Desplanches
Seydou Fini
Tomáš Bobček
Wisdom Amey

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 12:54.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Genoa win or draw70.2%

12 — any result other than a draw72.9%

X2 — draw or Frosinone win56.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Genoa lead at half-time6.6%

Level at half-time35.8%

Frosinone lead at half-time57.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Genoa ahead or level42.4%

12 — not level at half-time64.2%

X2 — level or Frosinone ahead93.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1551 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Genoa: at least 11Actual: 12
Frosinone: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

Genoa: at least 5Actual: 8
Frosinone: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genoa score1.33

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Frosinone concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Frosinone score1.29

Attack: Frosinone score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.0%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1551 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.