Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 4

Venezia–Fiorentina

2–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'VeneziaAkor Adams (assist: Gianluca Busio)
29'FiorentinaFranco Mastantuono (assist: Álex Jiménez)
30'FiorentinaFranco Mastantuono (assist: Beto)
66'FiorentinaMateo Pellegrino (assist: Nicolò Fagioli)
84'FiorentinaFranco Mastantuono
86'VeneziaAntoine Hainaut

Match statistics

Match statistics
Venezia		Fiorentina
11	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	10
9	Shots inside the box	15
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
544	Passes	337
485	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Venezia 1.09 · Fiorentina 1.44. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Venezia 11 · Fiorentina 19; on target 4 and 10.
Venezia kept the ball more (62%).

Announced lineup

Venezia

Formation: 3-5-2 · Manager: Giovanni Stroppa

Starting XI

Filip Stankovićgoalkeeper
Ridgeciano Hapsdefender
M. Morenodefender
Joel Schingtiennedefender
Richie Sagradomidfielder
Simon Sohmmidfielder
Gianluca Busiomidfielder
Kike Pérezmidfielder
Antoine Hainautmidfielder
Akor Adamsforward
John Yeboahforward

Substitutes

Albion Rrahmani

Unavailable players

Venezia

A. Adoranteout · Hernia
A. Bella-Kotchapout · injury
B. Franjicout · injury
M. Dagassoout · not in squad
M. Sverkoout · Hip Injury
T. Basicout · Foot Injury

Fiorentina

F. Parisiout · Knee Injury
R. Sottilout · Back Injury
Christ Inao Oulaïdoubtful · injury
F. Crocidoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Francesco Fourneau, Italy→

4.44

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “Venezia to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Venezia, 1.48 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,550 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Venezia to win34.5%

Draw26.9%

Fiorentina to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

(assist: Ridgeciano Haps)

10	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Þórir Jóhann Helgason

Fiorentina

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Paolo Vanoli

Starting XI

David De Geagoalkeeper
Luca Ranieridefender
Vierydefender
Radu Drăguşindefender
Álex Jiménezdefender
Arthur Attamidfielder
Cher Ndourmidfielder
Nicolò Fagiolimidfielder
Alieu Njieforward
Betoforward
Franco Mastantuonoforward

Substitutes

Christ Inao Oulaï
Dodô
João Mário
Luca Lezzerini
Marco Brescianini
Marin Pongračić
Mateo Pellegrino
Oliver Christensen
Pedro Gonçalves
Víctor Valdepeñas
W. Gnonto

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 18:44.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Venezia win or draw61.4%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Fiorentina win65.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Venezia lead at half-time16.7%

Level at half-time49.3%

Fiorentina lead at half-time34.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Venezia ahead or level65.9%

12 — not level at half-time50.7%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead83.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1550 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Venezia: at least 13Actual: 10
Fiorentina: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Venezia: at least 3Actual: 2
Fiorentina: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Venezia score1.09

Attack: Venezia score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.44

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Venezia concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–29.4%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1550 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.