Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 3

Cagliari–Lecce

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'CagliariDaniel Maldini (assist: Jacopo Fazzini)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cagliari		Lecce
20	Shots	10
9	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
7	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
368	Passes	514
302	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cagliari 1.34 · Lecce 0.95. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Cagliari 20 · Lecce 10; on target 9 and 3.
Lecce kept the ball more (58%).

Announced lineup

Cagliari

Formation: 4-3-2-1 · Manager: F. Pisacane

Starting XI

Elia Caprilegoalkeeper
Adam Obertdefender
Juan Rodríguezdefender
Alessandro Deioladefender
Zé Pedrodefender
Alessandro Romanomidfielder
Harry Winksmidfielder
Michel Adopomidfielder
Daniel Maldinimidfielder
Jacopo Fazzinimidfielder
Paul Mendyforward

Substitutes

Alen Sherri

Unavailable players

Cagliari

Kevinout · Personal Reasons
M. Nzolaout · Lacking Match Fitness
R. Idrissiout · Knee Injury
Y. Minaout · Calf Injury
Y. Sugawaraout · not in squad
Y. Trepyout · injury

Lecce

W. Geubbelsout · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy→

4.20

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “Cagliari to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Cagliari, 0.98 for Lecce.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (1X — Cagliari win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,548 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cagliari to win46.8%

Draw28.7%

Lecce to win24.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Lecce

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: E. Di Francesco

Starting XI

Wladimiro Falconegoalkeeper
Antonino Gallodefender
Tiago Gabrieldefender
Kialonda Gaspardefender
Danilo Veigadefender
Ivan Ilićmidfielder
Oumar Ngommidfielder
Lassana Coulibalymidfielder
Joël Monteiroforward
Nikola Štulićforward
Santiago Pierottiforward

Substitutes

A. Fatah
Ali Dembélé
Corrie Ndaba
Elijah Scott
Gaby Jean
Jamil Siebert
M. Berisha
Marco Bleve
N'Dri Konan
O. Gandelman
Olaf Gorter
P. Penev
Paco Esteban
Sadik Fofana
Youssef Maleh

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 16:42.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cagliari win or draw75.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.3%

X2 — draw or Lecce win53.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cagliari lead at half-time27.6%

Level at half-time47.7%

Lecce lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cagliari ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Lecce ahead72.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1548 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cagliari: at least 12Actual: 9
Lecce: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Cagliari: at least 4Actual: 7
Lecce: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (47.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cagliari score1.34

Attack: Cagliari score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lecce concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lecce score0.95

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cagliari's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–012.2%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1548 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 116 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.