Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 3

Genoa–Como

1–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'GenoaMilutin Osmajić (assist: Lorenzo Colombo)
25'ComoMartin Baturina (assist: Álex Valle)
30'ComoAssane Diao
40'ComoNico Paz (assist: Yan Couto)
78'ComoAssane Diao (assist: M. Kean)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genoa		Como
11	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	9
8	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	4
6	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
361	Passes	618
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genoa 0.89 · Como 1.49. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Genoa 11 · Como 20; on target 2 and 9.
Como kept the ball more (62%).

Unavailable players

Genoa

C. Dramehout · not in squad
E. Havelout · Ankle Injury
L. Venturinoout · Knee Injury

Como

J. Addaiout · Achilles Tendon Injury
M. Keandoubtful · Transfer negotiations

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

M. Guida→

3.68

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.86 for Genoa, 1.65 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 81.8% (X2 — draw or Como win).
These values were computed from 1,540 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genoa to win18.2%

Draw26.0%

Como to win55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Genoa lead at half-time13.6%

Level at half-time44.5%

Como lead at half-time41.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Genoa ahead or level58.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Como ahead86.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1540 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Genoa: at least 11Actual: 8
Como: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

Genoa: at least 3Actual: 5
Como: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genoa score0.89

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Como concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Como score1.49

Attack: Como score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%0–112.7%0–211.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.