Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 1

Frosinone–Juventus

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'JuventusGleison Bremer (assist: Francisco Conceição)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Frosinone		Juventus
8	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	11
3	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
198	Passes	370
132	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Frosinone 0.82 · Juventus 1.88. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Frosinone 8 · Juventus 18; on target 2 and 5.
Juventus kept the ball more (65%).

Unavailable players

Juventus

F. Gattiout · injury
J. Ekhatorout · Muscle Injury
M. Di Gregorioout · Transfer negotiations

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Giovanni Ayroldi, Italy→

4.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.5%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.86 for Frosinone, 2.16 for Juventus.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (X2 — draw or Juventus win).
These values were computed from 1,524 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Frosinone to win12.3%

Draw20.1%

Juventus to win67.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Frosinone lead at half-time13.8%

Level at half-time42.9%

Juventus lead at half-time43.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Frosinone ahead or level56.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Juventus ahead86.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1524 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Frosinone: at least 9Actual: 10
Juventus: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Frosinone: at least 4Actual: 2
Juventus: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Frosinone score0.82

Attack: Frosinone score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Juventus score1.88

Attack: Juventus score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Frosinone concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.88 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.7%1–210.8%1–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.