UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Hibernian–Gent

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'GentJ. Vergara (assist: T. Araujo)
56'HibernianJ. Kerr (assist: J. McGrath)
77'HibernianF. Passlack (assist: J. Mulligan)
84'GentChristian Burgess (assist: L. Benes)
90'GentM. Chaiwa (own goal · assist: I. Cisse)
90+3'Hibernian

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hibernian		Gent
13	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
407	Passes	521
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hibernian 1.27 · Gent 1.35. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Hibernian 13 · Gent 13; on target 5 and 5.
Gent kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

J. Martinez→

4.14

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.4%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “Hibernian to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Hibernian, 1.21 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,030 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hibernian to win34.4%

Draw27.2%

Gent to win38.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

M. Chaiwa · red card

8	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hibernian win or draw61.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Gent win65.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hibernian score1.27

Attack: Hibernian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score1.35

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hibernian's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%0–112.0%1–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2030 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 146 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.