Ferencvarosi TC–Trabzonspor

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'TrabzonsporR. Malinovskyi · red card
19'Ferencvarosi TCC. O'Dowda (assist: A. Nagy)
54'Ferencvarosi TCM. Corbu
57'TrabzonsporSidny Lopes Cabral · red card
59'Ferencvarosi TCDele (penalty)
86'Ferencvarosi TCK. Lisztes

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ferencvarosi TC		Trabzonspor
0	Shots	0
11	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
9	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC 1.82 · Trabzonspor 1.02. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Ferencvarosi TC 0 · Trabzonspor 0; on target 11 and 2.
Ferencvarosi TC kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

R. Obrenovic→

4.35

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “Trabzonspor to win”. Second comes “Ferencvarosi TC to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.52 for Trabzonspor.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,207 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ferencvarosi TC to win32.3%

Draw24.4%

Trabzonspor to win43.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	2

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ferencvarosi TC win or draw56.7%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or Trabzonspor win67.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.82

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.02

Attack: Trabzonspor score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%0–19.6%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2207 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 135 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.