UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Brighton–Tromso

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'BrightonC. Kostoulas (assist: M. De Cuyper)
33'BrightonM. De Cuyper
38'BrightonM. Wieffer (assist: C. Kostoulas)
86'BrightonO. Boscagli

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brighton		Tromso
21	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	0
16	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	0
3	Offsides	3
78%	Possession	22%
759	Passes	217
681	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brighton 2.25 · Tromso 0.90. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Brighton 21 · Tromso 5; on target 8 and 0.
Brighton kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

S. van der Eijk→

3.41

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.9%: “Brighton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.64 for Brighton, 0.65 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 93.0% (1X — Brighton win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,625 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brighton to win79.9%

Draw13.1%

Tromso to win7.0%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brighton score2.25

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score0.90

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.9%3–011.4%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.