UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Austria Vienna–SC Braga

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Austria Vienna		SC Braga
8	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
476	Passes	475
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Austria Vienna 0.90 · SC Braga 1.93. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Austria Vienna 8 · SC Braga 9; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

N. Dabanovic→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “Austria Vienna to win” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Austria Vienna, 1.49 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,917 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Austria Vienna to win26.3%

Draw25.3%

SC Braga to win48.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Austria Vienna score0.90

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.93

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.5%1–112.0%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.