FC Thun–Lech Poznan

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Lech PoznanR. Gumny (assist: L. Palma)
22'FC ThunS. Lengen (assist: F. Dursun)
43'FC ThunF. Dursun (assist: N. Maier)
68'Lech PoznanP. Walemark (assist: Mateusz Lis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Thun		Lech Poznan
0	Shots	0
3	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Thun 1.31 · Lech Poznan 2.26. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Thun 0 · Lech Poznan 0; on target 3 and 3.
Lech Poznan kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

H. U. Meler→

5.31

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “FC Thun to win” at 37.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for FC Thun, 1.62 for Lech Poznan.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,102 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Thun to win37.5%

Draw22.9%

Lech Poznan to win39.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Thun score1.31

Attack: FC Thun score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lech Poznan score2.26

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Thun's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.2%1–28.5%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.