CSKA Sofia–OFI

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'OFIT. Nuss (assist: A. Poungouras)
78'OFII. Theodosoulakis (assist: I. Apostolakis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
CSKA Sofia		OFI
0	Shots	0
6	Shots on target	7
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA Sofia 2.20 · OFI 0.76. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots CSKA Sofia 0 · OFI 0; on target 6 and 7.
CSKA Sofia kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

I. Kruzliak→

3.78

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.5%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for CSKA Sofia, 0.89 for OFI.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — CSKA Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,871 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA Sofia to win61.5%

Draw21.1%

OFI to win17.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA Sofia score2.20

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.20 goals.

How many goals OFI score0.76

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–011.9%2–011.0%1–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.