Aarhus–Benfica

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'BenficaGianluca Prestianni (assist: A. Bah)
55'BenficaRafa Silva
60'AarhusRasmus Carstensen
61'BenficaGianluca Prestianni (assist: Clément Lenglet)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aarhus		Benfica
0	Shots	0
3	Shots on target	8
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aarhus 1.32 · Benfica 1.72. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Aarhus 0 · Benfica 0; on target 3 and 8.
Benfica kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Siebert→

4.60

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

101

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.5%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Aarhus, 2.37 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (X2 — draw or Benfica win).
These values were computed from 1,924 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aarhus to win14.2%

Draw17.3%

Benfica to win68.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Aarhus win or draw31.5%

12 — any result other than a draw82.7%

X2 — draw or Benfica win85.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aarhus score1.32

Attack: Aarhus score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Benfica score1.72

Attack: Benfica score 74% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–29.8%1–29.7%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1924 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 132 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.