UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

FC ST. Gallen–FC Nordsjaelland

2–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'FC NordsjaellandJ. Lahteenmaki (assist: L. Sadio)
21'FC ST. GallenL. Gortler (penalty)
24'FC NordsjaellandP. Amoako (assist: N. Rojkjaer)
28'FC ST. GallenA. Balde (assist: Chima Okoroji)
39'FC ST. GallenMihailo Stevanović · red card
82'FC Nordsjaelland

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC ST. Gallen		FC Nordsjaelland
22	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
403	Passes	533
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC ST. Gallen 1.41 · FC Nordsjaelland 1.95. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots FC ST. Gallen 22 · FC Nordsjaelland 16; on target 7 and 5.
FC Nordsjaelland kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

O. Grinfeld→

4.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.8%: “FC ST. Gallen to win”. Second comes “FC Nordsjaelland to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.61 for FC Nordsjaelland.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,516 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC ST. Gallen to win44.8%

Draw21.6%

FC Nordsjaelland to win33.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

H. Rasmussen (assist: A. Lind)

13	Fouls	12

6	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 816 of 1,253 predictions were correct (65.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC ST. Gallen win or draw66.4%

12 — any result other than a draw78.4%

X2 — draw or FC Nordsjaelland win55.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC ST. Gallen score1.41

Attack: FC ST. Gallen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score1.95

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: FC ST. Gallen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.0%2–18.7%1–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1516 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 132 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.