UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Ajax–FC Sion

5–3

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajax		FC Sion
26	Shots	11
15	Shots on target	4
22	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
543	Passes	447
498	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajax 1.84 · FC Sion 1.02. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots Ajax 26 · FC Sion 11; on target 15 and 4.
Ajax kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

J. Weinberger→

4.22

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.6%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.69 for Ajax, 1.03 for FC Sion.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — Ajax win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajax to win72.6%

Draw15.1%

FC Sion to win12.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajax score1.84

Attack: Ajax score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Sion concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Sion score1.02

Attack: FC Sion score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.0%2–08.7%3–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.