UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Atalanta

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'AtalantaGianluca Scamacca

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Atalanta
11	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
465	Passes	472
408	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.78 · Atalanta 1.64. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 11 · Atalanta 14; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

J. Pignard→

4.33

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.5%: “Atalanta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.89 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 2.05 for Atalanta.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (X2 — draw or Atalanta win).
These values were computed from 2,382 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win15.7%

Draw19.8%

Atalanta to win64.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score0.78

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atalanta score1.64

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–111.1%0–211.1%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.