Red Bull Salzburg–Mjallby AIF

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Red Bull SalzburgK. Konate
67'Red Bull SalzburgK. Konate (assist: E. Baidoo)
80'Red Bull SalzburgH. Tabakovic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Red Bull Salzburg		Mjallby AIF
0	Shots	0
7	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	0
0	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Red Bull Salzburg 1.97 · Mjallby AIF 1.20. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Red Bull Salzburg 0 · Mjallby AIF 0; on target 7 and 2.
Red Bull Salzburg kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

I. Peljto→

4.00

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.6%: “Red Bull Salzburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.58 for Red Bull Salzburg, 0.77 for Mjallby AIF.
The highest double chance value is 90.9% (1X — Red Bull Salzburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,771 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Red Bull Salzburg to win76.6%

Draw14.4%

Mjallby AIF to win9.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score1.97

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Mjallby AIF's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mjallby AIF score1.20

Attack: Mjallby AIF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%3–010.1%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.