Omonia Nicosia–St. Truiden

4–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Omonia NicosiaLoïs Diony (penalty)
29'Omonia NicosiaLoïs Diony (assist: Ewandro Costa)
33'St. TruidenI. Sebaoui (penalty)
50'Omonia NicosiaLoïs Diony (assist: Ewandro Costa)
82'Omonia NicosiaN. Panagiotou (assist: Senou Coulibaly)
90+2'St. TruidenI. Sebaoui

Match statistics

Match statistics
Omonia Nicosia		St. Truiden
0	Shots	0
5	Shots on target	5
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 1.71 · St. Truiden 1.28. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Omonia Nicosia 0 · St. Truiden 0; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak→

4.85

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Omonia Nicosia to win”. Second comes “St. Truiden to win” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Omonia Nicosia, 1.08 for St. Truiden.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,997 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win46.1%

Draw25.4%

St. Truiden to win28.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

(assist: A. Sissako)

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw71.5%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or St. Truiden win53.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.71

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score 75% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals St. Truiden score1.28

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–011.9%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1997 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 136 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.