UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Hradec Králové–Panathinaikos

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.21 · Panathinaikos 1.27. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

S. Stegemann→

4.93

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “Hradec Králové to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Hradec Králové, 1.45 for Panathinaikos.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,873 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win29.8%

Draw25.3%

Panathinaikos to win44.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hradec Králové win or draw55.1%

12 — any result other than a draw74.7%

X2 — draw or Panathinaikos win70.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.21

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.27

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%0–111.3%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1873 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 128 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.