UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Monaco–Gornik Zabrze

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'MonacoParis Josua Brunner (assist: M. Coulibaly)
43'MonacoM. Coulibaly (assist: Flávio Nazinho)
50'MonacoA. Golovin
78'MonacoM. Biereth
83'Gornik ZabrzeJ. Antiste (assist: Josema)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monaco		Gornik Zabrze
15	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
720	Passes	357
656	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monaco 2.05 · Gornik Zabrze 0.99. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Monaco 15 · Gornik Zabrze 7; on target 6 and 5.
Monaco kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

V. Fotias→

4.74

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.9%: “Monaco to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.32 for Monaco, 0.88 for Gornik Zabrze.
The highest double chance value is 87.1% (1X — Monaco win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monaco to win69.9%

Draw17.2%

Gornik Zabrze to win12.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monaco score2.05

Attack: Monaco score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score0.99

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monaco's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.9%1–09.7%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.