UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

SC Freiburg–Motherwell

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'SC FreiburgD. Scherhant (assist: M. Eggestein)
22'MotherwellM. Emmanuel (assist: I. Said)
57'MotherwellJ. Girdwood-Reich · red card
60'SC FreiburgI. Matanović (assist: D. Scherhant)
63'SC FreiburgCyriaque Kalou Irié (assist: D. Scherhant)
85'SC Freiburg

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Motherwell
29	Shots	2
11	Shots on target	1
20	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
662	Passes	284
605	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.96 · Motherwell 0.80. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots SC Freiburg 29 · Motherwell 2; on target 11 and 1.
SC Freiburg kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

A. Colombo→

4.70

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.7%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.69 for SC Freiburg, 0.69 for Motherwell.
The highest double chance value is 92.7% (1X — SC Freiburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,104 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win79.7%

Draw13.0%

Motherwell to win7.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SC Freiburg win or draw92.7%

12 — any result other than a draw87.0%

X2 — draw or Motherwell win20.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.0%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.96

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Motherwell concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Motherwell score0.80

Attack: Motherwell score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%3–011.0%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2104 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 136 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.