UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Maccabi Tel Aviv–FC Lugano

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'FC LuganoMattia Zanotti · red card
69'Maccabi Tel AvivD. Peretz (penalty)
79'FC LuganoD. Moncada (assist: Y. Cimignani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv		FC Lugano
20	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
533	Passes	371
467	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.86 · FC Lugano 1.43. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Maccabi Tel Aviv 20 · FC Lugano 9; on target 7 and 2.
Maccabi Tel Aviv kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

D. Schlager→

4.72

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “FC Lugano to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.36 for FC Lugano.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,692 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win41.6%

Draw24.0%

FC Lugano to win34.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.86

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC Lugano concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.86 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals FC Lugano score1.43

Attack: FC Lugano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–18.8%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.