UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

FK Jablonec–Rangers

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'FK JablonecV. Chanturishvili

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Jablonec		Rangers
16	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
652	Passes	558
554	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Jablonec 1.31 · Rangers 1.63. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FK Jablonec 16 · Rangers 9; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

N. Minakovic→

5.38

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Rangers to win”. Second comes “FK Jablonec to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for FK Jablonec, 1.48 for Rangers.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,935 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Jablonec to win31.7%

Draw24.9%

Rangers to win43.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,779 of 4,000 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.31

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rangers score1.63

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%0–110.3%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.