·The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “Fenerbahçe to win” at 25.8%.
·Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Lyon, 1.14 for Fenerbahçe.
·The highest double chance value is 76.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
·These values were computed from 2,693 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
Lyon to win51.0%
Draw23.2%
Fenerbahçe to win25.8%
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →
245
12
Fouls
17
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
K. Akturkoglu
out · Concussion
M. Asensioout · Muscle Injury
M. Gunokout · Muscle Injury
M. Yandasout · not in squad
O. Mimovicout · not in squad
Rodrigo Becaoout · not in squad
Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.
Both teams to score
55.6%
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — Lyon win or draw74.2%
12 — any result other than a draw76.8%
X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win49.0%
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.2%).
Goals market
The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.
The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.
What these probabilities rest on
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
How many goals Lyon score1.89
Attack: Lyon score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).
How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.38
Attack: Fenerbahçe score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.
Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).
Most likely scorelines
1–110.9%1–010.2%2–19.6%
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 2693 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 141 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.
Lyon–
Fenerbahçe