AEK Athens FC–Levski Sofia

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 26 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'AEK Athens FCL. Jović (assist: L. Rota)
12'AEK Athens FCB. Varga (assist: Filipe Relvas)
29'AEK Athens FCB. Varga (assist: L. Majer)
55'AEK Athens FCR. Marin (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Levski Sofia
18	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
437	Passes	482
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 1.26 · Levski Sofia 0.78. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 18 · Levski Sofia 11; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

C. Turpin→

3.35

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

110

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.3%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for AEK Athens FC, 0.65 for Levski Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,871 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win65.3%

Draw21.6%

Levski Sofia to win13.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score1.26

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 50% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.26 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Levski Sofia score0.78

Attack: Levski Sofia score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.78 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–015.9%2–014.0%1–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.