UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Rapid Vienna–Heart Of Midlothian

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 26 August 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rapid Vienna 1.16 · Heart Of Midlothian 1.28. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

E. Masiyev→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Rapid Vienna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Rapid Vienna, 0.96 for Heart Of Midlothian.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — Rapid Vienna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,549 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rapid Vienna to win63.4%

Draw19.7%

Heart Of Midlothian to win16.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Rapid Vienna win or draw83.1%

12 — any result other than a draw80.3%

X2 — draw or Heart Of Midlothian win36.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.7%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rapid Vienna score1.16

Attack: Rapid Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.28

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rapid Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.3%1–010.2%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1549 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 131 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.