Bodo/Glimt–NEC Nijmegen

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 25 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'NEC NijmegenG. Crettaz · red card
45'Bodo/GlimtF. Bjørkan (assist: S. Auklend)
45'Bodo/GlimtS. Auklend (assist: J. Hauge)
73'Bodo/GlimtD. Fonville (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		NEC Nijmegen
21	Shots	3
9	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
80%	Possession	20%
774	Passes	185
703	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.50 · NEC Nijmegen 1.10. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 21 · NEC Nijmegen 3; on target 9 and 2.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (80%).

Unavailable players

Bodo/Glimt

A. Mikkelsenout · Groin Injury
H. Evjenout · Knee Injury
I. Sjongout · injury
J. Gundersenout · Thigh Injury
M. Bro Hansenout · injury
M. Riisnaesout · injury
O. Didrik Blombergdoubtful · injury

NEC Nijmegen

A. Kaplanout · Knee Injury
E. Morout · not in squad
K. Ogawaout · Head Injury
P. Sandlerout · injury
P. Schuursout · Knee Injury
S. Ouaissaout · Muscle Injury
D. Fonville

Referee

M. Oliver→

3.87

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

147

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.7%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “NEC Nijmegen to win” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.49 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.30 for NEC Nijmegen.
The highest double chance value is 82.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,343 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win63.7%

Draw17.6%

NEC Nijmegen to win18.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw81.3%

12 — any result other than a draw82.4%

X2 — draw or NEC Nijmegen win36.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.50

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.10

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.1%3–17.6%1–17.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2343 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.