Premier League · England · Regular Season - 4

Leeds–Newcastle

4–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'LeedsL. Miley (own goal)
34'LeedsJ. Bogle (assist: D. Calvert-Lewin)
45+1'LeedsD. Calvert-Lewin (assist: T. Muharemović)
59'LeedsN. Okafor
90'NewcastleB. Touré (assist: V. Livramento)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leeds		Newcastle
15	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
440	Passes	433
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leeds 1.46 · Newcastle 1.34. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Leeds 15 · Newcastle 7; on target 6 and 5.

Announced lineup

Leeds

Formation: 3-5-2 · Manager: D. Farke

Starting XI

J. Traffordgoalkeeper
T. Muharemovićdefender
N. Elvedidefender
J. Justindefender
G. Gudmundssonmidfielder
A. Tanakamidfielder
E. Ampadumidfielder
A. Stachmidfielder
J. Boglemidfielder
N. Okaforforward
D. Calvert-Lewinforward

Substitutes

B. Aaronson
D. James

Unavailable players

Leeds

J. Rodonout · Muscle Injury
M. Josephout · Knee Injury
I. Gruevdoubtful · Knee Injury

Newcastle

A. Elangaout · injury
D. Burnout · Ankle Injury
E. Jaouenout · Ankle Injury
Joelintonout · Thigh Injury
W. Osulaout · injury
A. Dedićdoubtful · Hamstring Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Leeds to win”. Second comes “Newcastle to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Leeds, 1.30 for Newcastle.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,559 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leeds to win42.3%

Draw26.9%

Newcastle to win30.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Newcastle

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Matthias Jaissle

Starting XI

L. Horníčekgoalkeeper
L. Halldefender
S. Botmandefender
M. Thiawdefender
A. Dedićdefender
L. Mileymidfielder
Nico Gonzálezmidfielder
H. Barnesmidfielder
M. Fernandez-Pardomidfielder
J. Murphymidfielder
Y. Wissaforward

Substitutes

A. Bamba
B. Touré
F. Schär
J. Ramsey
J. Willock
M. Miley
N. Pope
Sean Steur
V. Livramento

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 19:14.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Leeds win or draw69.1%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Newcastle win57.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

Leeds lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time43.6%

Newcastle lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Leeds ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Newcastle ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1559 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leeds: at least 10Actual: 8
Newcastle: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Leeds: at least 4Actual: 5
Newcastle: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (57.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leeds score1.46

Attack: Leeds score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Newcastle's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Newcastle score1.34

Attack: Newcastle score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leeds's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.9%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1559 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 79 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.