Premier League · England · Regular Season - 4

Sunderland–Arsenal

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'ArsenalBruno Guimaraes (assist: D. Rice)
90+6'SunderlandReinildo Mandava · red card
90+7'ArsenalB. Saka (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sunderland		Arsenal
12	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
284	Passes	386
217	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sunderland 0.81 · Arsenal 1.56. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Sunderland 12 · Arsenal 11; on target 3 and 5.
Arsenal kept the ball more (58%).

Announced lineup

Sunderland

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: R. Le Bris

Starting XI

Robin Roefsgoalkeeper
Reinildo Mandavadefender
Daniel Ballarddefender
Kevin Dansodefender
Nordi Mukieledefender
Noah Sadikimidfielder
Granit Xhakamidfielder
Nilson Angulomidfielder
Enzo Le Féemidfielder
Thomas Meuniermidfielder
Brian Brobbeyforward

Substitutes

C. Talbi

Unavailable players

Sunderland

H. Diarraout · Hamstring Injury
R. Mundleout · Knee Injury

Arsenal

C. Mosqueraout · Muscle Injury
W. Salibaout · Back Injury
J. Timberdoubtful · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.8%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.76 for Sunderland, 1.74 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 85.3% (X2 — draw or Arsenal win).
These values were computed from 1,556 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sunderland to win14.7%

Draw24.5%

Arsenal to win60.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Arsenal

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Mikel Arteta

Starting XI

David Rayagoalkeeper
R. Calafioridefender
Gabriel Magalhãesdefender
E. Konsadefender
B. Whitedefender
M. Lewis-Skellymidfielder
D. Ricemidfielder
C. Tzolismidfielder
M. Ødegaardmidfielder
B. Sakamidfielder
K. Havertzforward

Substitutes

Bruno Guimaraes
E. Eze
J. Timber
Kepa
Martín Zubimendi
Mikel Merino
N. Madueke
P. Hincapié
V. Gyökeres

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 19:12.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sunderland win or draw39.2%

12 — any result other than a draw75.5%

X2 — draw or Arsenal win85.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sunderland lead at half-time14.2%

Level at half-time43.8%

Arsenal lead at half-time42.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sunderland ahead or level57.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Arsenal ahead85.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1556 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sunderland: at least 10Actual: 18
Arsenal: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Sunderland: at least 3Actual: 4
Arsenal: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (57.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sunderland score0.81

Attack: Sunderland score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arsenal score1.56

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Sunderland's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.6%0–212.7%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1556 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.